17.05.2016
Schriftgröße
1 Bewertung(en) Rating
Putting the Ente in Energiew-Ente

Reports of 100% renewable power in Germany vastly overstated

It turns out that the Agorameter only estimates the current load, and repeatedly the estimate has come in around 10 GW too low. The alleged 100% renewable power peak on Sunday now looks closer to 82%.

First, I need to explain the joke in the subtitle above. “Ente” is German for canard, which is actually French for a misleading / untrue news report. We have now had two misleading reports on the peak share of renewable power, so the Energiewende is increasingly an EnergiewEnte.

(I am a very funny guy.)

Second, I am about to criticize Agora, but I have made the same mistake myself (just compare the URL and the text here). And to be fair, Agora staff have tried to warn against misreports, but to little avail. Basically, live data are not only guesstimates, but also keep adjusting for around 48 hours.

In the case of Agora’s chart for Sunday, which originally seemed to show that renewable power touched the line for demand for the first time ever, power demand turns out to be only estimated for the current day. The estimate also seems to be reliably 10 GW too low (at least in these two cases). The 100% share of renewables now comes in at 82% (47 GW of 57 GW).

 - 
Agora Energiewende

You get an even better feel for how all of this is just guesstimated by comparing Agora with Fraunhofer’s Energy Charts. For Sunday, Fraunhofer has a peak of around 55 GW. It’s not far from Agora’s current 57 GW, but it’s still a 4% difference. Top German politicians say the Energiewende is Germany’s Man on the Moon Project. You could not land a man on the moon with 4% imprecision.

What can be done? These charts, as messy as they are, are far too important to get rid of. They must stay online. They are a part of the democratic, open debate among informed citizenry. 4% imprecision is fine for that purpose. We are not navigating to the moon with these charts; we are Monday-morning quarterbacking (for non-Americans, football games in the US are generally on Sunday).

However, we cannot continue to have canards published on the Energiewende. Agora has asked me if I know of any better source of current load data, and I don’t (if you do, use the comment box below).

I’d therefore propose a workaround:

  • Don’t include the load/demand forecast any longer. Put it in 1-2 days later when you actually have the data.
  • Maybe include a (highly visible) disclaimer on the Agorameter whenever current data is displayed: “Data from the past 48 (or whatever) hours are preliminary and will change.”
  • Shade the tentative data (as Fraunhofer does).

That won’t fix all the other things everyone is getting wrong. Even a guy from Bloomberg wrote that Germany was “nearly 100 percent renewable energy for a day.” (It’s a brief peak, not the whole day, and it’s just electricity, not energy.) So we can’t fix all of the Enten until everyone knows those differences, which ain’t gonna happen soon. But we can at least not contribute to the one about 100% peaks that are not yet happening.

(Craig Morris / @PPchef)

Ist dieser Artikel für Sie hilfreich?
  • Artikel
  • kommentieren
  • |
  • drucken

5 Kommentare zu "Reports of 100% renewable power in Germany vastly overstated "

  1. Cecile - 19.05.2016, 14:59 Uhr (Kommentar melden)

    I don't any better current load database, however, like you did here with your 4%, it might prove useful to integrate an error bar to the Agorameter. One could use an averaged error based on projected/actual numbers perhaps? Putting an envelope around the curves is one way to do that.

  2. Brian - 19.05.2016, 10:39 Uhr (Kommentar melden)

    What about the exported power? Did you demand number include it?

  3. heinbloed - 17.05.2016, 12:35 Uhr (Kommentar melden)

    (sorry for the double posting)
    For 10 GW of conventional power there is no technical explanation, amazing ....
    http://www.tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/negative-strompreise-pfingst-fluch-an-der-stromboerse/13596686.html
    Quote:
    " Für mehr als zehn Gigawatt konventioneller Leistung haben die Consentec-Autoren aber keine technische Begründung finden können. Sie vermuten, dass die Eigenerzeugung für Industrieanlagen einen Anteil an dieser überschüssigen Leistung hat. Erzeugt eine Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsanlage Prozesswärme für eine Fabrik, ist der Strom quasi ein Abfallprodukt, das weiter erzeugt wird. Das gleiche gilt für Blockheizkraftwerke, die der Wärme- und Warmwassererzeugung in Häusern dienen. Ein weiterer nicht näher quantifizierbarer Anteil sind Kraftwerke, die im Minimalbetrieb gefahren werden, um sie nicht ausschalten zu müssen. Denn danach dauert es Stunden, bis sie wieder ans Netz gehen können. Auch für diese Betreiber ist es rational für den erzeugten Strom zu bezahlen. "
    Machine translation:
    " For more than ten gigawatts of conventional power the Consentec writers have but can not find any technical justification. They suspect that the indigenous production for industrial plants has a share of the surplus power. Creates a cogeneration plant process heat for a factory, the current is virtually a waste product, which is further generated. The same applies to combined heat and power, which serve to heat and hot water in homes. Another unspecified quantifiable proportion are power plants, which are operated at minimum levels, so as not to have to shut down. Because after that it takes hours until they can go online again. For these operators, it is rational to pay for the electricity produced. "
    In other words: the RE-surcharge not only pays for them as well but RE-generators don't get the FIT when the price is for more than 6 hours in the negative.
    And to shoot the duck: The 100% RE-power supply was very likely already achieved many times before for entire days and nights (24h non-stop) if it hadn't been for the dumpers.
    These 10 GW are what was missing and had been added onto the Agorametercharts.

  4. heinbloed - 17.05.2016, 12:14 Uhr (Kommentar melden)

    The curtailing of RE-plants have caused the ducks laughing:
    Statkraft alone reduced the output on the 8th of May by 3 GW - without it we would have seen the 100% coverage.
    (press statement in German) http://statkraft.de/presse/Pressemitteilungen/2016/windkraft-echtzeitreaktion-auf-uberangebotpage/
    Euwid about the situation(again in German):
    http://www.euwid-energie.de/news/systemtransformation/einzelansicht/Artikel/negative-strompreise-statkraft-regelt-windstromproduktion-herunter.html
    Euwid and the Berliner Tagesspiegel both blame the non-RE generators for being to slow to react:
    (in German again) http://www.tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/negative-strompreise-pfingst-fluch-an-der-stromboerse/13596686.html
    Other grid managers/power generators probably adjusted their RE-production as well on the 8th and 15th of May.
    Are their live-data or near live-data available showing curtailing measurements ?
    EdF gives for the 15th of May ( last canard's Sunday) 33 atom power plants in France as idled or partly damaged with reduced output. A total of 64 French generators could or should not have delivered with full capacity:
    http://activites.edf.com/optimisation-et-trading-211255.html
    The market coupling of the countries joining Germany's interconnector grid not only reduces the power price spread but also the generation demand.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/selling-german-power-in-france-losing-allure-as-prices-converge
    Whilst there was talk of re-routing ("looping") power via the Eastern neighbors Czech Republik and Poland and overstretching the power systems there now they both seem to consume power from Germany in parallel, being net-importers during the same time strip:
    https://www.energy-charts.de/power.htm (see import/export for the 8th of May)
    It would be interesting to map an interactive data chart showing more than Germany's RE-situation but also that of Europe's power plants ramping up and down when there is a good harvest.
    For the environment it doesn't matter much if a German coal power plants is idled or a Czech or Polish one. And for the atomic exit the same goes.



  5. heinbloed - 17.05.2016, 11:56 Uhr (Kommentar melden)

    The curtailing of RE-plants have caused the ducks laughing:
    Statkraft alone reduced the output on the 8th of May by 3 GW - without it we would have seen the 100% coverage.
    (press statement in German) http://statkraft.de/presse/Pressemitteilungen/2016/windkraft-echtzeitreaktion-auf-uberangebotpage/
    Euwid about the situation(again in German):
    http://www.euwid-energie.de/news/systemtransformation/einzelansicht/Artikel/negative-strompreise-statkraft-regelt-windstromproduktion-herunter.html
    Euwid and the Berliner Tagesspiegel both blame the non-RE generators for being to slow to react:
    (in German again) http://www.tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/negative-strompreise-pfingst-fluch-an-der-stromboerse/13596686.html
    Other grid managers/power generators probably adjusted their RE-production as well on the 8th and 15th of May.
    Are their live-data or near live-data available showing curtailing measurements ?
    EdF gives for the 15th of May ( last canard's Sunday) 33 atom power plants in France as idled or partly damaged with reduced output. A total of 64 French generators could or should not have delivered with full capacity:
    http://activites.edf.com/optimisation-et-trading-211255.html
    The market coupling of the countries joining Germany's interconnector grid not only reduces the power price spread but also the generation demand.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/selling-german-power-in-france-losing-allure-as-prices-converge
    Whilst there was talk of re-routing ("looping") power via the Eastern neighbors Czech Republik and Poland and overstretching the power systems there now they both seem to consume power from Germany in parallel, being net-importers during the same time strip:
    https://www.energy-charts.de/power.htm (see import/export for the 8th of May)
    It would be interesting to map an interactive data chart showing more than Germany's RE-situation but also that of Europe's power plants ramping up and down when there is a good harvest.
    For the environment it doesn't matter much if a German coal power plants is idled or a Czech or Polish one. And for the atomic exit the same goes.



Kommentar schreiben

Ihre persönlichen Daten:

Sicherheitsprüfung: (neu laden)

Bitte füllen Sie alle Felder mit * aus! Ihre E-Mail-Adresse wird nicht veröffentlicht.